Superforecasting and Social Epidemiology (Justin Crow Interview)

In this episode (recorded 4/5/20), we interview superforecaster Justin Crow. Justin is a social epidemiologist in the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about what social epidemiology is; the work he’s doing on the COVID-19 pandemic; how the efforts to fight the pandemic in Virginia are going; why COVID-19 case numbers can be misleading; the prospect of COVID-19 spreading to rural areas; when things can begin to return to normal; and his recommendations for taking care of oneself. Justin’s remarks are his private opinions and do not represent the official views of the Virginia Department of Health.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Third Time’s the Plague

In this episode (recorded 3/22/20), we discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We talk about the Good Judgment/Open Philanthropy dashboard of COVID-19 forecasts; the situations in Missouri, Romania, and Hawaii; travel restrictions and stay-at-home-orders; whether red states will be impacted to a greater degree than blue states; and which of us will be the first to contract the coronavirus.

The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map is here. The Good Judgment dashboard with superforecaster forecasts for the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is here. Metaculus’ infectious disease prediction markets are here.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Chips Are Down

In this episode (recorded 3/14/20), we discuss the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspectives of Scott in Romania, Robert in Hawaii, and Atief in Missouri. We end by asking, first, how many monkeys is this? and, second, why wasn’t Jared Kushner put in charge of the response sooner?

Note that during the week it took for us to get this podcast up, everything in the world changed completely. The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map is here. The Good Judgment dashboard with superforecaster forecasts for the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is here. Metaculus’ infectious disease prediction markets are here. The intro music is a clip from “When the Chips Are Down” from the original Broadway cast recording of “Hadestown”.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

American Democracy Under Siege (Mike Signer Interview)

In this episode (recorded 2/21/20), we interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege; what makes President Trump a demagogue; whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues; how the national political climate affected events in Charlottesville; the importance of respecting people we disagree with in politics; whether constitutionalism can prevail against demagoguery; and why Mike endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president.

Mike is also the author of two other books: Becoming Madison: The Extraordinary Origins of the Least Likely Founding Father and Demagogue: The Fight to Save Democracy from Its Worst Enemies. Mike’s 2015 op-ed calling Donald Trump a demagogue is here. Mike’s call in Vox to block Donald Trump in the Electoral College is here.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Shades of Blue

It’s finally here! In this episode (recorded 11/23/19), we try to predict the Pantone Color of the Year for 2020. Will it be “classic blue” or “mosaic blue” or “flame orange” or something else? We’ll find out soon.

You can see last year’s color (“living coral”) along with previous colors of the year here. You can hear our podcast on the 2019 Color of the Year here, on the 2018 Color of the Year here, and on the 2017 Color of the Year here. You can read about “ecosexuality” here.

We’re now on Spotify! You can also find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

UPDATE: We pretty much nailed this. The Pantone 2020 Color of the Year is classic blue.

Zelensky MemCon

In this episode (recorded 11/1/19), we share inside information about how MemCons (memoranda of conversations) are produced in the Situation Room from a source who has been involved in their production. We describe how MemCons are produced; explain how unusual it is to move a MemCon to the NICE (NSC Intelligence Collaboration Enviroment) computer system, which is normally used for only the most highly classified files; discuss Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor’s House testimony; and talk about the reaction to the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

A Letter to Erdogan

In this episode (recorded 10/19/19), we talk about President Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria; what Tulsi Gabbard is up to; and what the US presidency might look like when Trump is gone.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

DTMFA

In this episode (recorded 9/28/19), we discuss possible outcomes of the House impeachment inquiry. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now; whether we have reached peak whataboutism; the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House; the role of public opinion; whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate; and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunes, Stitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

DTMFA stands for “Donald Trump malfeasance allegations.” The opening clip is from the Honey Drippers’ 1973 single “Impeach the President”. You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Implications

In this episode (recorded 9/21/19), we talk about the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities; the corrosive effects of cynicism; the intelligence whistleblower complaint; and who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunes, Stitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

The opening clip is from season 6 episode 3 of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

War Cry

In this episode (recorded 8/2/19), we talk about what we did over the summer; why we’ve been less enthusiastic about following politics lately; what we think about the Democratic primary debates so far; whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low; to what extent we’re responsible for the ethics and policies of the candidate we support; the weakening of the principle of stare decisis in American politics; and American values and the politics of resentment.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.