Episode 8: US Election Best Bets

This episode begins by following up our interview with Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Executive Director Seth Baum with a discussion the Fermi Paradox—why don’t we see evidence of other intelligent life in the galaxy given the apparently enormous number of places in the galaxy where life could have evolved? We briefly consider Robin Hanson’s argument that there is a “great filter” that keeps most places where life could evolve from producing stable advanced civilizations.

Next we update our estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning the US election, talk about the erosion of norms in US politics, and give our US election “best bets” on public political betting sites. We close the podcast with a discussion of whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump would win if they were to fight behind a gym.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com. And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

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