In this episode (recorded 1/4/19), we interview Good Judgment Vice President, and superforecaster Marc Koehler. Before Good Judgment, Marc was a foreign service officer with postings overseas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Hong Kong, and Sweden, and domestically to the Office of the Vice President, the White House Situation Room, the National Security Council, and the Pentagon.
We talk to Marc about what it was like to work for Vice President Dick Cheney; his experience in the Pentagon; forecasting on the intelligence community prediction market and participating in the Good Judgment Project; the value of open-source intelligence and the dangers of classified intelligence; what happens when decision-makers don’t want accurate forecasts; forecasting Kim Jong-un; whether there will be conflict between the US and China; and what’s next for Good Judgment.
Our interview with Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran about forecasting question design is here. Our interview with Good Judgment Managing Director and superforecaster Michael Story is here. Our interview with superforecaster Welton Chang about his experience as intelligence officer in South Korea is here. All of our interviews are listed here.
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