Mailbag: Chicago, Hybrids, Data Privacy

In this episode (recorded 1/5/19), we open up our mailbag and try to answer three forecasting questions sent in by listeners: who will win Chicago’s mayoral election; whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car; and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU’s GDPR data privacy law.

We close out the episode by talking about Isaac Asimov’s prediction for 2019 and David Brooks’ prediction for 2019, and announcing the winner of our 2018 North Korea summit challenge coin.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Marc Koehler Interview

In this episode (recorded 1/4/19), we interview Good Judgment Vice President, and superforecaster Marc Koehler. Before Good Judgment, Marc was a foreign service officer with postings overseas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Hong Kong, and Sweden, and domestically to the Office of the Vice President, the White House Situation Room, the National Security Council, and the Pentagon.

We talk to Marc about what it was like to work for Vice President Dick Cheney; his experience in the Pentagon; forecasting on the intelligence community prediction market and participating in the Good Judgment Project; the value of open-source intelligence and the dangers of classified intelligence; what happens when decision-makers don’t want accurate forecasts; forecasting Kim Jong-un; whether there will be conflict between the US and China; and what’s next for Good Judgment.

Our interview with Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran about forecasting question design is here. Our interview with Good Judgment Managing Director and superforecaster Michael Story is here. Our interview with superforecaster Welton Chang about his experience as intelligence officer in South Korea is here. All of our interviews are listed here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Nothing Else Mattis

In this episode (recorded 12/23/18), we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019. We talk about the significance of Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ resignation and of his resignation letter; the US’ relationship with its allies; the normalization of authoritarian politics; the partial shutdown of the US government; whether President Trump could be impeached; Hungary’s “slave law”; and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Overtaken by Events: Holiday Edition!

In this episode (recorded 12/10/18), we perform our annual ritual of guessing the Pantone Color of the Year (the 2019 Color of the Year is here and you can listen to our discussions of the 2017 and 2018 colors here and here). Then we make our predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year, which was chosen the day after we recorded (Time’s 2019 Person of the Year is here).

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Next Two Years

In this episode (recorded 11/16/18), we discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri; the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again; voter suppression in the election; what’s going to happen in US politics over the next two years; whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020; who the Democrats will nominate for President; whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries; and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Midterms and the Day After

In this episode (recorded 11/1/18), we continue our discussion of the political climate in the US ahead of the midterm elections on Tuesday. We talk about the impact of the “migrant caravan” story and President Trump’s threat to end birthright citizenship; why most conspiracy theories are false; humiliation in forecasting and in politics; the Missouri Senate race; the fight over the US Supreme Court; the possibility of violence after the midterms; and Trump’s claim that he can effectively amend the 14th Amendment by executive order.

Listeners still have a couple more days to take advantage of political betting site PredictIt’s midterm promotional offer (check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here). Sign up by Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of your first deposit matched by using our link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

GO VOTE, AMERICA!

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Things Could Change

In this episode (recorded 10/22/18), we discuss US politics ahead of the midterm elections. We talk about whether we should care about nuclear weapons now that the Trump administration says it will withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; why we aren’t tackling big problems like the danger of nuclear war and climate change; Michael Howard’s suggestion in The Invention of Peace that we go to war partly out of boredom and Daniel Boorstin’s concept in The Image of “pseudo-events” that are created just to be reported; immigration and the construction of national identity; what will matter in the midterms; the Missouri Senate race; voter enthusiasm in the midterms; and Texas Senate race. We conclude that Democrats have something like a 70-80% chance of retaking the House.

Listeners who are interested in trying PredictIt to make bets on things like the midterm elections—check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here—have until Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of their first deposit matched by taking advantage of our promotional link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

The intro music for this episode is a clip from “I Can Change” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

In this episode (recorded 9/18/18), we discuss Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31; the nature of the allegations against Kavanaugh; how hearings might affect midterm elections in the US; the altercation at an Emmy party between Mark Burnett and Tom Arnold about the rumored Trump Apprentice tapes; and a also few Things Scott Cares About.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Scared Money

In this episode (recorded 9/4/18), Atief and Robert discuss the upcoming midterm elections in the US. We talk about what information we use to forecast the midterms; whether the median voter theorem still holds; local races in Missouri and Hawaii as well as other races we find interesting; and the importance of voter turnout.

Listeners who are interested in trying PredictIt to make real bets on political events like the midterm elections—check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here—can get up $20 of their first deposit matched by using this promotional link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

Don’t forget to submit your interesting forecasting questions to us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com) for a chance to win a genuine collectible Korea Singapore Summit coin.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. The intro music for this episode is a clip from “Midnight” by A Tribe Called Quest. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Space Force and Star Child

We’re back!

In this episode (recorded 8/17/18), we talk briefly about what we were up to all summer while we weren’t podcasting. We discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended; the politicization of the administrative state; the use of pretexts in political debates; how Robert lost money by bailing out of a bet about Hawaii politics too early; how low expectations are eroding norms; how cute Atief’s baby is; Robert’s news fatigue; corruption and political protests in Romania; and what news stories we’re each following.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.