Somethingtopia

In this episode (recorded 5/12/19), we talk about the ethics of forecasting; why public forecasts may be less problematic than private forecasts; why painting houses is morally less problematic; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s warning that President Trump might refuse to leave office if he loses a close election; the “Schrödinger’s asshole” strategy; and Jared Diamond’s prediction that “the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050”.

The intro music is a clip from “Strange Overtones” by David Byrne & Brian Eno. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/15/19), we interview Anthony Aguirre. Dr, Aguirre is a theoretical cosmologist at UC Santa Cruz and also one of the founders of Metaculus, of the Future of Life Institute, and of the Foundational Questions Institute. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus; forecasting the far future and catastrophic events; forecasting the development of AI; calibrating forecasts; catastrophic risk and the origins of the Future of Life Institute; exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. You can listen to another Anthony Aguirre interview on the Rationally Speaking podcast here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Superforecaster’s Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/1/19), we interview novelist and superforecaster Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series four spy novels: The Colonel’s MistakeThe LevelingSpy For Hireand Death of a Spy set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels; what will become of the Iran nuclear deal; how common conspiracies are in real life; his forthcoming work set during the siege of Aleppo; how he researches his books; the Middle East’s prospects; what other authors have influenced his style; and what his fans are like.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Risk Management

In this episode (recorded 2/22/19), we discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies; what’s going on in Venezuela; how Brexit is like “a submarine made of cheese”; the “glass cliff” theory that women and minorities tend to be hired for leadership positions when the chance of failure is highest; and whether a woman, a gay man, a transgender person, or an openly atheist person will be the first to become president of the US.

The intro music is a clip from “Risk” by Metric. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Mailbag: Chicago, Hybrids, Data Privacy

In this episode (recorded 1/5/19), we open up our mailbag and try to answer three forecasting questions sent in by listeners: who will win Chicago’s mayoral election; whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car; and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU’s GDPR data privacy law.

We close out the episode by talking about Isaac Asimov’s prediction for 2019 and David Brooks’ prediction for 2019, and announcing the winner of our 2018 North Korea summit challenge coin.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Marc Koehler Interview

In this episode (recorded 1/4/19), we interview Good Judgment Vice President, and superforecaster Marc Koehler. Before Good Judgment, Marc was a foreign service officer with postings overseas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Hong Kong, and Sweden, and domestically to the Office of the Vice President, the White House Situation Room, the National Security Council, and the Pentagon.

We talk to Marc about what it was like to work for Vice President Dick Cheney; his experience in the Pentagon; forecasting on the intelligence community prediction market and participating in the Good Judgment Project; the value of open-source intelligence and the dangers of classified intelligence; what happens when decision-makers don’t want accurate forecasts; forecasting Kim Jong-un; whether there will be conflict between the US and China; and what’s next for Good Judgment.

Our interview with Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran about forecasting question design is here. Our interview with Good Judgment Managing Director and superforecaster Michael Story is here. Our interview with superforecaster Welton Chang about his experience as intelligence officer in South Korea is here. All of our interviews are listed here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Nothing Else Mattis

In this episode (recorded 12/23/18), we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019. We talk about the significance of Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ resignation and of his resignation letter; the US’ relationship with its allies; the normalization of authoritarian politics; the partial shutdown of the US government; whether President Trump could be impeached; Hungary’s “slave law”; and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Overtaken by Events: Holiday Edition!

In this episode (recorded 12/10/18), we perform our annual ritual of guessing the Pantone Color of the Year (the 2019 Color of the Year is here and you can listen to our discussions of the 2017 and 2018 colors here and here). Then we make our predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year, which was chosen the day after we recorded (Time’s 2019 Person of the Year is here).

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Next Two Years

In this episode (recorded 11/16/18), we discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri; the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again; voter suppression in the election; what’s going to happen in US politics over the next two years; whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020; who the Democrats will nominate for President; whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries; and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Midterms and the Day After

In this episode (recorded 11/1/18), we continue our discussion of the political climate in the US ahead of the midterm elections on Tuesday. We talk about the impact of the “migrant caravan” story and President Trump’s threat to end birthright citizenship; why most conspiracy theories are false; humiliation in forecasting and in politics; the Missouri Senate race; the fight over the US Supreme Court; the possibility of violence after the midterms; and Trump’s claim that he can effectively amend the 14th Amendment by executive order.

Listeners still have a couple more days to take advantage of political betting site PredictIt’s midterm promotional offer (check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here). Sign up by Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of your first deposit matched by using our link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

GO VOTE, AMERICA!

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.