Competitive Forecasting

Interested in exploring competitive forecasting? You should! It’s a good way to cultivate strong critical thinking skills. Strong, smug critical thinking skills. The following are links to some of the forecasting sites that we have discussed on our podcast. If you know of any others, please let us know at nonprophetspod@gmail.com and we’ll add them.

Good Judgment Open
The mama bear of forecasting sites. Like New York City, if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere.

PredictIt
PredictIt is a prediction market site that lets users forecast political and financial events for real money. It is apparently a non-profit project run by Victoria University, Wellington of New Zealand, although PredictIt will take a cut of any of your forecasting gains when you cash out, so be careful about moving in and out of positions frequently. Obviously, if you listen to our podcast, you know that we love talking about this site.

Hybrid Forecasting Competition
This is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods. Even if it’s not currently open to new enrollees, it’s probably worth tracking. These kinds of longitudinal, deep-dive tournaments are, as the kids say, “fun af.”

Almanis
Another fun group forecasting site with a prize pool. They forecast “on every question that matters—geopolitics, financial markets, industries, social issues, technology, medical matters and economics.”

Fantasy SCOTUS
A recurring Supreme Court prediction competition, that currently ends July 2018. What will they do next? Who knows? Is that good for fostering a stable legal environment for long-term decision making by individuals and businesses? Probably not!

FREDcast
This is the St. Louis Fed’s economic forecasting game. Have we done it? No. Should you do it? Sure, go nuts.

Paddy Power
Paddy Power is an Irish sports betting site that also does a few political bets, of varying levels of seriousness. Their bets are fun to talk about, although we don’t actually do (or endorse, although you do you) any sports betting.

Other forecasting sites, with which we are less familiar but which you may fall in love with, include:

Augur “a prediction market platform that rewards you for correctly predicting real world events”

Betfair British betting site

Hypermind “collective intelligence of the future is essential to minimise uncertainty in a fast-changing globalised world”

Metaculus “a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants”

Predictious “the premier Bitcoin prediction market”