Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/15/19), we interview Anthony Aguirre. Dr, Aguirre is a theoretical cosmologist at UC Santa Cruz and also one of the founders of Metaculus, of the Future of Life Institute, and of the Foundational Questions Institute. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus; forecasting the far future and catastrophic events; forecasting the development of AI; calibrating forecasts; catastrophic risk and the origins of the Future of Life Institute; exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. You can listen to another Anthony Aguirre interview on the Rationally Speaking podcast here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.