PredictIt!

We start this episode (recorded 11/17/17) by catching up briefly on recent news. Then we discuss the black swan possibility of a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in light of recent events in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Lebanon. We finish by debating some PredictIt US politics questions.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Twice As Bright, Half As Long

In this episode (recorded 7/26/17), we discuss the probability that Donald Trump will leave office sometime in the first two years of his term. Scott thinks PredictIt’s markets—which currently give Trump a 17% chance of leaving office before the end of 2017 and a 35% chance of leaving office before the end of 2018—are pretty well priced, but Atief thinks PredictIt’s odds of Trump leaving are too high.

We end the podcast by considering the possibility that voter suppression will have a significant effect on the midterm elections in the US; whether there is likely to be compelling evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia; and the danger of a North Korean nuclear attack on Hawaii.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

September 28, 2016 Podcast

In this episode, we update our US presidential election forecasts in the aftermath of the first debate. We disagree on how much the debate is likely to matter, but agree that Trump’s chances of winning the election are getting smaller. Then we talk about some interesting and surprising US politics forecasts on the PredictIt market and agree that it’s unlikely that Hillary Clinton will face a federal criminal charge in 2016. Finally, we look at how recent developments could affect the possibility of black swan instability in Saudi Arabia that we considered in an earlier podcast.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends!

September 21, 2016 Podcast

In this episode—available on iTunes and on Blubbry—we talk about the Dunning-Kruger effect, the difference between intelligence and rationality, and how much our forecasts rely on our “gut instincts”. Scott recounts the cautionary tale of McArthur Wheeler. We respond to our first listener e-mail and discuss a recent Upshot article on the difficulty of interpreting raw polling data. Atief recalls Samuel Huntington’s essay “The Clash of Civilizations?” and worries that partisan divisions could lead to black swan conflict in the US. Sir Thomas More also makes a special appearance. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com).

The Third NonProphets Podcast Is Up

The latest episode of the NonProphets Podcast is available on iTunes and on Blubbry. In this episode we increase our estimates of Donald Trump’s chance of winning but disagree with Dilbert creator Scott Adams’ view that Hillary Clinton’s public illness has made her “unelectable”. We talk about whether we are likely to get evidence of life after death or life on other planets any time soon. We consider a possible black swan on the Korean peninsula. Atief also tries to stop swearing. If you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com).

The Second NonProphets Podcast Is Available

In the second episode of the NonProphets Podcast—which can be downloaded on iTunes and on Blubbry—we talk about how much we should revise our estimates of Donald Trump’s chance of winning, ask how wrong our Brexit referendum forecasts were, consider whether it is inappropriate to forecast some questions, and look at a possible black swan in the Middle East. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com).

The NonProphets Podcast Is Live

The NonProphets Podcast is available for download on iTunes and Blubbry! In the first episode, we introduce ourselves, discuss the probability that National Front Leader Marine Le Pen will advance to the second round of the upcoming French presidential election, debate Donald Trump’s chances in the November US election, and conduct our inaugural Black Swan Hunt. If you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com).