Episode 17: Michael Story Interview

In episode 17 (recorded 1/26/17), we interview Good Judgment director and friend of the podcast Michael Story. Michael is a British superforecaster with an MSc. in public policy research from the London School of Economics.

We talk with Michael about his approach to forecasting and about his experience training forecasters. We go on to discuss the class politics of Brexit, the rise of nationalism in Europe, what happens if the US support for NATO weakens, and who would win in a rematch between the UK and Argentina. We close by considering whether there is realistic chance that a country uses a nuclear weapon in 2017.

The article on training forecasters Michael mentioned is

Mellers, Barbara, et al. “Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament.” Psychological Science 25.5 (2014): 1106-1115.

You can also find NonProphets on iTunes and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

The Second NonProphets Podcast Is Available

In the second episode of the NonProphets Podcast—which can be downloaded on iTunes and on Blubbry—we talk about how much we should revise our estimates of Donald Trump’s chance of winning, ask how wrong our Brexit referendum forecasts were, consider whether it is inappropriate to forecast some questions, and look at a possible black swan in the Middle East. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com).