Somethingtopia

In this episode (recorded 5/12/19), we talk about the ethics of forecasting; why public forecasts may be less problematic than private forecasts; why painting houses is morally less problematic; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s warning that President Trump might refuse to leave office if he loses a close election; the “Schrödinger’s asshole” strategy; and Jared Diamond’s prediction that “the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050”.

The intro music is a clip from “Strange Overtones” by David Byrne & Brian Eno. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Mailbag: Chicago, Hybrids, Data Privacy

In this episode (recorded 1/5/19), we open up our mailbag and try to answer three forecasting questions sent in by listeners: who will win Chicago’s mayoral election; whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car; and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU’s GDPR data privacy law.

We close out the episode by talking about Isaac Asimov’s prediction for 2019 and David Brooks’ prediction for 2019, and announcing the winner of our 2018 North Korea summit challenge coin.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Nothing Else Mattis

In this episode (recorded 12/23/18), we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019. We talk about the significance of Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ resignation and of his resignation letter; the US’ relationship with its allies; the normalization of authoritarian politics; the partial shutdown of the US government; whether President Trump could be impeached; Hungary’s “slave law”; and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Next Two Years

In this episode (recorded 11/16/18), we discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri; the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again; voter suppression in the election; what’s going to happen in US politics over the next two years; whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020; who the Democrats will nominate for President; whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries; and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Midterms and the Day After

In this episode (recorded 11/1/18), we continue our discussion of the political climate in the US ahead of the midterm elections on Tuesday. We talk about the impact of the “migrant caravan” story and President Trump’s threat to end birthright citizenship; why most conspiracy theories are false; humiliation in forecasting and in politics; the Missouri Senate race; the fight over the US Supreme Court; the possibility of violence after the midterms; and Trump’s claim that he can effectively amend the 14th Amendment by executive order.

Listeners still have a couple more days to take advantage of political betting site PredictIt’s midterm promotional offer (check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here). Sign up by Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of your first deposit matched by using our link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

GO VOTE, AMERICA!

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Odds and Ends

In this episode (recorded 5/31/18), we catch up on what we’ve been doing while we’re not podcasting. Atief talks about the importance of the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Lucia v. Securities and Exchange Commission for administrative law judges and for the administrative state. Robert talks about his experience as a delegate at the recent Hawaii State Democrats Convention. Then we talk with Atief about his experience as a new parent and his philosophy of parenting. We close with a discussion Atief’s purchase of the amazing commemorative Korea peace talks coins being sold by the White House Gift Shop.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

PredictIt (Will Jennings Interview)

In this episode (recorded 4/26/18), we talk to PredictIt Head of Public Engagement Will Jennings. We talk to Will about what PredictIt is and how it works; how prediction markets can be sources of news and information; which markets have been controversial; who makes money on PredictIt and how they do it; how PredictIt comes up with specific markets; and what lessons Will has learned from working on prediction markets.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Everything’s on the Table

In this episode (recorded 4/23/18), we play a game we call “Everything’s on the Table”. In this game, Robert suggests possible news items and Atief and Scott say whether or not they think those stories could plausibly happen in 2018. We weigh important questions ranging from whether North and South Korea might announce they are exploring reunification, to whether Special Counsel Robert Mueller might name President Trump an unindicted co-conspirator in money laundering and bank fraud, to whether Attorney General Jeff Sessions might have the only copy of the Wu-Tang Clan’s “Once Upon a Time in Shaolin” destroyed.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. The intro music to this episode is a clip from A Tribe Called Quest’s “Scenario”. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Straight Outta Chumptown

In this episode (recorded 4/4/18), we talk about “the backfire effect”—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong.

We discuss Andrew Gelman’s skepticism of a New England Journal of Medicine report—which we discussed in the previous podcast—finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings; how skeptical we should be of research that confirms our preconceptions; “The Debunking Handbook” techniques for changing people’s minds; research into how much contrary information it takes to change people’s mind; whether culture or economics determines elections; how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making; and how we can stay out of Chumptown,

The four episodes of the You Are Not So Smart podcast on the “backfire effect” are here, here, here, and here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Calculations

In this episode (recorded 3/23/18), we talk about PredictIt questions we’ve lost money on; what things that come out of the Trump administration are worth paying attention to; the nerve agent assassination attempt in England; the Russian concept of vranyo; what public figures Americans trust; how and whether we can change other people’s minds; what the consequences of the recent crash of a self-driving Uber car will be; and the eternal conflict between K.I.T.T. and K.A.R.R.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. The intro music for this episode is a clip from “Calculate” by Del the Funky Homosapien. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.