Episode 19: Trump Administration Best Bets

In episode 19 (recorded 2/12/17), we discuss the odds President Trump will be impeached, the odds that Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump administration official will be the first to leave office (and decide that at 12-1 odds National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is our best bet to leave office first), what’s wrong with New York Knicks management, whether compromising Russian footage of Trump will appear on RedTube, whether Trump and Melania will split up, whether the Affordable Care Act will be repealed or amended in 2017, who the next justice to leave the Supreme Court will be, and whether the Trump administration will withdraw from the Iran deal.

You can also find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 18: Hitler’s Mac and Cheese

In episode 18 (recorded 2/1/17), we talk to friend of the podcast and small business owner James about Trump’s “two-for-one” executive order on reducing regulation and about how new technologies like real-time video manipulation might affect our ability to know what is real. Atief goes on to argue that Trump’s supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch is somehow like Hitler’s macaroni and cheese recipe. We close the podcast with a discussion of the recent corruption amnesty protests in Romania.

You can also find NonProphets on iTunes and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 16: Information in the Trump Age

We kick off this episode (recorded on 1/11/17) by discussing effective charitable giving, the value of turkey hunting, and Hawaiian jungle fowl. We go on to talk about Donald Trump’s recent press conference and how we can gather and interpret information in light in the Trump era.

Then we play “Trump v. Obama” by trying to forecast how approval ratings, stock market growth, unemployment rates, and manufacturing employment will compare for the two. We close with by comparing our scores on controversial sociologist Charles Murray’s “bubble quiz”, which was devised as a rough measure of how connected you are to mainstream white American culture.

You can find NonProphets on iTunes here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 15: New Year Forecasts

We start our first podcast of 2017 (recorded on 1/4/17) by estimating the over/under on the number of times Donald Trump will mention Rosie O’Donnell on Twitter in 2017. We go on to talk about policy-making an era when people don’t trust scientific expertise. Roberts wonders if the fate of the European Union could turn on the presidential election in France. And we all agree that Trump is more likely to strike the North Korean nuclear program preemptively than Clinton would have been.

We finish by sharing our New Year’s resolutions: Robert wants to write a book; Scott wants to get his Ph.D. dissertation done; and Atief wants to have the hosts of the Atheist Community of Austin radio show that is our namesake (“The Non Prophets”)  come on our podcast as guests. The intro music for this episode is a clip from Death Cab for Cutie, “The New Year”.

You can find NonProphets on iTunes here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 14: Seth Baum on Trump Presidency Risk

In our last podcast of 2016 (recorded on 12/22/16), we talk for a second time to Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Executive Director Seth Baum (our first interview with Dr. Baum is here). We discuss Dr. Baum’s recent column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on the risks associated with a Trump presidency. We discussed whether Trump believes in Nixon’s “Madman Theory”of foreign policy, how much damage Trump could do to the global climate change regime, and what ordinary citizens could do to mitigate the risk of catastrophe.

We also look back at our holiday-season predictions. The Pantone 2017 color of the year was “greenery”, which was the color that Scott thought was second most likely. Robert managed to come within $5 million of the opening weekend domestic box office of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. We finish up by talking about our holiday plans and also about vampires. Happy New Year and thanks for listening to NonProphets!

You can find NonProphets on iTunes here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episodes 10 and 11: Election Post-Mortems

We’re releasing two new episodes today! Our first post-election podcast was delayed by technical difficulties, so we’re posting two podcasts at once.

In Episode 10—recorded two days after the election—we conduct a post-mortem of our election forecasts (Robert also wrote about how wrong his forecast was here). Scott describes election night at the US Embassy’s party at a Romanian Hard Rock Café. We start to look at what effect Trump’s election is likely to have on foreign and domestic politics. We also consider whether Obama will preemptively pardon Hillary Clinton.

In Episode 11—recorded the following week—we talk about the Oxford English Dictionary’s selection of “post-truth” as its “word of the year” and how we can forecast post-truth politics. We try to answer a listener question about how we know whether our forecasts were good or bad. We speculate about the possibility of electoral college reform, a national Election Day, faithless electors, and a Trump impeachment. We close the episode by talking about Trump’s foreign policy and whether it’s a good idea to name your child “Kermit”.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 9: Short, Pre-Election Survival Guide

In this episode, we give our listeners some advice for how to survive the last few days before the election. We discuss the most recent polls, speculate about whether there will be any more surprises over the weekend, and generally try to put the last-minute horse-race coverage of the election in context.

We also talk about the erosion of democratic norms in US politics and try to guess how long it will take for either candidate to concede the election. Atief argues we should take a Mean Girls approach to restoring norms and Scott goes into the history of Transylvanian Saxon divorce customs.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 8: US Election Best Bets

This episode begins by following up our interview with Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Executive Director Seth Baum with a discussion the Fermi Paradox—why don’t we see evidence of other intelligent life in the galaxy given the apparently enormous number of places in the galaxy where life could have evolved? We briefly consider Robin Hanson’s argument that there is a “great filter” that keeps most places where life could evolve from producing stable advanced civilizations.

Next we update our estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning the US election, talk about the erosion of norms in US politics, and give our US election “best bets” on public political betting sites. We close the podcast with a discussion of whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump would win if they were to fight behind a gym.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 7: Seth Baum on the Risk of Global Catastrophe

In this episode we interview Dr. Seth Baum, the executive director and co-f0under of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute about how to forecast the possibility of catastrophes that could threaten human civilization. We also talk briefly about the US election, discuss how to forecast a few technological questions, and consider whether Atief is likely to die on Mars. We end by previewing next week’s podcast, in which we will give our “best bets” on US election questions taken from political betting sites and submitted by listeners.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

October 14, 2016 Podcast

In our latest episode, Robert and Scott argue that at this point Donald Trump has almost no chance of winning the election. Atief makes the case that recent news has not hurt Trump that much among his core supporters and that he could still win if Hillary Clinton’s supporters don’t get out to the polls. We play “too-high-too-low-or-about-right” with a bunch of PredictIt politics questions and also talk about driverless cars, longevity escape velocity, and the possibility of a cashless economy. We end the podcast about by thinking about what might happen after the US election.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.