Third Time’s the Plague

In this episode (recorded 3/22/20), we discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We talk about the Good Judgment/Open Philanthropy dashboard of COVID-19 forecasts; the situations in Missouri, Romania, and Hawaii; travel restrictions and stay-at-home-orders; whether red states will be impacted to a greater degree than blue states; and which of us will be the first to contract the coronavirus.

The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map is here. The Good Judgment dashboard with superforecaster forecasts for the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is here. Metaculus’ infectious disease prediction markets are here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Chips Are Down

In this episode (recorded 3/14/20), we discuss the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspectives of Scott in Romania, Robert in Hawaii, and Atief in Missouri. We end by asking, first, how many monkeys is this? and, second, why wasn’t Jared Kushner put in charge of the response sooner?

Note that during the week it took for us to get this podcast up, everything in the world changed completely. The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map is here. The Good Judgment dashboard with superforecaster forecasts for the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is here. Metaculus’ infectious disease prediction markets are here. The intro music is a clip from “When the Chips Are Down” from the original Broadway cast recording of “Hadestown”.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

American Democracy Under Siege (Mike Signer Interview)

In this episode (recorded 2/21/20), we interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what makes President Trump a demagogue (07:48); whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues (11:52); how the national political climate affected events in Charlottesville (19:45); the importance of respecting people we disagree with in politics (22:58); whether constitutionalism can prevail against demagoguery (36:59); and why Mike endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president (43:35).

Mike is also the author of two other books: Becoming Madison: The Extraordinary Origins of the Least Likely Founding Father and Demagogue: The Fight to Save Democracy from Its Worst Enemies. Mike’s 2015 op-ed calling Donald Trump a demagogue is here. Mike’s call in Vox to block Donald Trump in the Electoral College is here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Zelensky MemCon

In this episode (recorded 11/1/19), we share inside information about how MemCons (memoranda of conversations) are produced in the Situation Room from a source who has been involved in their production. We describe how MemCons are produced; explain how unusual it is to move a MemCon to the NICE (NSC Intelligence Collaboration Enviroment) computer system, which is normally used for only the most highly classified files; discuss Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor’s House testimony; and talk about the reaction to the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

A Letter to Erdogan

In this episode (recorded 10/19/19), we talk about President Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria; what Tulsi Gabbard is up to; and what the US presidency might look like when Trump is gone.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

DTMFA

In this episode (recorded 9/28/19), we discuss possible outcomes of the House impeachment inquiry. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now; whether we have reached peak whataboutism; the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House; the role of public opinion; whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate; and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunesStitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

DTMFA stands for “Donald Trump malfeasance allegations.” The opening clip is from the Honey Drippers’ 1973 single “Impeach the President”. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Implications

In this episode (recorded 9/21/19), we talk about the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities; the corrosive effects of cynicism; the intelligence whistleblower complaint; and who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunesStitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

The opening clip is from season 6 episode 3 of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Somethingtopia

In this episode (recorded 5/12/19), we talk about the ethics of forecasting; why public forecasts may be less problematic than private forecasts; why painting houses is morally less problematic; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s warning that President Trump might refuse to leave office if he loses a close election; the “Schrödinger’s asshole” strategy; and Jared Diamond’s prediction that “the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050”.

The intro music is a clip from “Strange Overtones” by David Byrne & Brian Eno. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Mailbag: Chicago, Hybrids, Data Privacy

In this episode (recorded 1/5/19), we open up our mailbag and try to answer three forecasting questions sent in by listeners: who will win Chicago’s mayoral election; whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car; and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU’s GDPR data privacy law.

We close out the episode by talking about Isaac Asimov’s prediction for 2019 and David Brooks’ prediction for 2019, and announcing the winner of our 2018 North Korea summit challenge coin.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Nothing Else Mattis

In this episode (recorded 12/23/18), we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019. We talk about the significance of Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ resignation and of his resignation letter; the US’ relationship with its allies; the normalization of authoritarian politics; the partial shutdown of the US government; whether President Trump could be impeached; Hungary’s “slave law”; and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.