Shades of Blue

It’s finally here! In this episode (recorded 11/23/19). we try to predict the Pantone Color of the Year for 2020. Will it be “classic blue” or “mosaic blue” or “flame orange” or something else? We’ll find out soon.

You can see last year’s color (“living coral”) along with previous colors of the year here. You can hear our podcast on the 2019 Color of the Year here, on the 2018 Color of the Year here, and on the 2017 Color of the Year here. You can read about “ecosexuality” here.

We’re now on Spotify! You can also find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

UPDATE: We pretty much nailed this. The Pantone 2020 Color of the Year is classic blue.

A Letter to Erdogan

In this episode (recorded 10/19/19), we talk about President Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria; what Tulsi Gabbard is up to; and what the US presidency might look like when Trump is gone.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

DTMFA

In this episode (recorded 9/28/19), we discuss possible outcomes of the House impeachment inquiry. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now; whether we have reached peak whataboutism; the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House; the role of public opinion; whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate; and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunesStitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

DTMFA stands for “Donald Trump malfeasance allegations.” The opening clip is from the Honey Drippers’ 1973 single “Impeach the President”. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Implications

In this episode (recorded 9/21/19), we talk about the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities; the corrosive effects of cynicism; the intelligence whistleblower complaint; and who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunesStitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

The opening clip is from season 6 episode 3 of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

War Cry

In this episode (recorded 8/2/19), we talk about what we did over the summer; why we’ve been less enthusiastic about following politics lately; what we think about the Democratic primary debates so far; whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low; to what extent we’re responsible for the ethics and policies of the candidate we support; the weakening of the principle of stare decisis in American politics; and American values and the politics of resentment.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

David Epstein Interview

In this episode (recorded 7/23/19), we interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World and The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short; how to adapt to “wicked” learning environments; why “omnivorous generalists” are good at forecasting; how his research influenced how he plans to raise his own child; what we get wrong about Mozart and Tiger Woods; the advantages of having students explore topics broadly rather than teaching them narrow skills; the advantages of “skill-stacking”; and his experience interviewing Sir Roger Bannister.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews here. You can watch David discuss Range with Malcolm Gladwell here. The Calling Bullshit website is here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Somethingtopia

In this episode (recorded 5/12/19), we talk about the ethics of forecasting; why public forecasts may be less problematic than private forecasts; why painting houses is morally less problematic; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s warning that President Trump might refuse to leave office if he loses a close election; the “Schrödinger’s asshole” strategy; and Jared Diamond’s prediction that “the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050”.

The intro music is a clip from “Strange Overtones” by David Byrne & Brian Eno. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/15/19), we interview Anthony Aguirre. Dr, Aguirre is a theoretical cosmologist at UC Santa Cruz and also one of the founders of Metaculus, of the Future of Life Institute, and of the Foundational Questions Institute. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus; forecasting the far future and catastrophic events; forecasting the development of AI; calibrating forecasts; catastrophic risk and the origins of the Future of Life Institute; exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. You can listen to another Anthony Aguirre interview on the Rationally Speaking podcast here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Superforecaster’s Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/1/19), we interview novelist and superforecaster Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series four spy novels: The Colonel’s MistakeThe LevelingSpy For Hireand Death of a Spy set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels; what will become of the Iran nuclear deal; how common conspiracies are in real life; his forthcoming work set during the siege of Aleppo; how he researches his books; the Middle East’s prospects; what other authors have influenced his style; and what his fans are like.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Marc Koehler Interview

In this episode (recorded 1/4/19), we interview Good Judgment Vice President, and superforecaster Marc Koehler. Before Good Judgment, Marc was a foreign service officer with postings overseas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Hong Kong, and Sweden, and domestically to the Office of the Vice President, the White House Situation Room, the National Security Council, and the Pentagon.

We talk to Marc about what it was like to work for Vice President Dick Cheney; his experience in the Pentagon; forecasting on the intelligence community prediction market and participating in the Good Judgment Project; the value of open-source intelligence and the dangers of classified intelligence; what happens when decision-makers don’t want accurate forecasts; forecasting Kim Jong-un; whether there will be conflict between the US and China; and what’s next for Good Judgment.

Our interview with Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran about forecasting question design is here. Our interview with Good Judgment Managing Director and superforecaster Michael Story is here. Our interview with superforecaster Welton Chang about his experience as intelligence officer in South Korea is here. All of our interviews are listed here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.