The Next Two Years

In this episode (recorded 11/16/18), we discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri; the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again; voter suppression in the election; what’s going to happen in US politics over the next two years; whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020; who the Democrats will nominate for President; whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries; and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Midterms and the Day After

In this episode (recorded 11/1/18), we continue our discussion of the political climate in the US ahead of the midterm elections on Tuesday. We talk about the impact of the “migrant caravan” story and President Trump’s threat to end birthright citizenship; why most conspiracy theories are false; humiliation in forecasting and in politics; the Missouri Senate race; the fight over the US Supreme Court; the possibility of violence after the midterms; and Trump’s claim that he can effectively amend the 14th Amendment by executive order.

Listeners still have a couple more days to take advantage of political betting site PredictIt’s midterm promotional offer (check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here). Sign up by Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of your first deposit matched by using our link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

GO VOTE, AMERICA!

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Things Could Change

In this episode (recorded 10/22/18), we discuss US politics ahead of the midterm elections. We talk about whether we should care about nuclear weapons now that the Trump administration says it will withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; why we aren’t tackling big problems like the danger of nuclear war and climate change; Michael Howard’s suggestion in The Invention of Peace that we go to war partly out of boredom and Daniel Boorstin’s concept in The Image of “pseudo-events” that are created just to be reported; immigration and the construction of national identity; what will matter in the midterms; the Missouri Senate race; voter enthusiasm in the midterms; and Texas Senate race. We conclude that Democrats have something like a 70-80% chance of retaking the House.

Listeners who are interested in trying PredictIt to make bets on things like the midterm elections—check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here—have until Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of their first deposit matched by taking advantage of our promotional link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

The intro music for this episode is a clip from “I Can Change” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

In this episode (recorded 9/18/18), we discuss Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31; the nature of the allegations against Kavanaugh; how hearings might affect midterm elections in the US; the altercation at an Emmy party between Mark Burnett and Tom Arnold about the rumored Trump Apprentice tapes; and a also few Things Scott Cares About.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Scared Money

In this episode (recorded 9/4/18), Atief and Robert discuss the upcoming midterm elections in the US. We talk about what information we use to forecast the midterms; whether the median voter theorem still holds; local races in Missouri and Hawaii as well as other races we find interesting; and the importance of voter turnout.

Listeners who are interested in trying PredictIt to make real bets on political events like the midterm elections—check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here—can get up $20 of their first deposit matched by using this promotional link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

Don’t forget to submit your interesting forecasting questions to us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com) for a chance to win a genuine collectible Korea Singapore Summit coin.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. The intro music for this episode is a clip from “Midnight” by A Tribe Called Quest. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Space Force and Star Child

We’re back!

In this episode (recorded 8/17/18), we talk briefly about what we were up to all summer while we weren’t podcasting. We discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended; the politicization of the administrative state; the use of pretexts in political debates; how Robert lost money by bailing out of a bet about Hawaii politics too early; how low expectations are eroding norms; how cute Atief’s baby is; Robert’s news fatigue; corruption and political protests in Romania; and what news stories we’re each following.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Straight Outta Chumptown

In this episode (recorded 4/4/18), we talk about “the backfire effect”—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong.

We discuss Andrew Gelman’s skepticism of a New England Journal of Medicine report—which we discussed in the previous podcast—finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings; how skeptical we should be of research that confirms our preconceptions; “The Debunking Handbook” techniques for changing people’s minds; research into how much contrary information it takes to change people’s mind; whether culture or economics determines elections; how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making; and how we can stay out of Chumptown,

The four episodes of the You Are Not So Smart podcast on the “backfire effect” are here, here, here, and here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Calculations

In this episode (recorded 3/23/18), we talk about PredictIt questions we’ve lost money on; what things that come out of the Trump administration are worth paying attention to; the nerve agent assassination attempt in England; the Russian concept of vranyo; what public figures Americans trust; how and whether we can change other people’s minds; what the consequences of the recent crash of a self-driving Uber car will be; and the eternal conflict between K.I.T.T. and K.A.R.R.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. The intro music for this episode is a clip from “Calculate” by Del the Funky Homosapien. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Guns, Norms, and Democracy

In this episode (recorded 3/5/18), we talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics; the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy; whether democratic norms are weakening; Transparency International’s 2017 Corruption Perceptions Index; whether there will be any material change US gun laws in the next six months; and which institutions in the US are seen as corrupt.

The New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings is here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Toward the Year 2068

In this episode (recorded 2/23/18), we discuss a 1968 collection of essays speculating what the distant future of 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We start by talking about whether its really possible to predict the future fifty years out; the difficulty of forecasting changing norms and tastes; what the book got right and what it got wrong; how much our lives have actually changed since 1968; how technology is making it harder to know what’s real and what’s fake; how technology could make the problems of inequality worse; how technology is changing our ideas of privacy; what science fiction scenario is closest to what life will be like in 50 years; whether there will be more than 100,000 people in space in 50 years; the problem of technological unemployment; what country we would want to be born into in 50 years; and what people 50 years from now will judge us for doing.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.