Zelensky MemCon

In this episode (recorded 11/1/19), we share inside information about how MemCons (memoranda of conversations) are produced in the Situation Room from a source who has been involved in their production. We describe how MemCons are produced; explain how unusual it is to move a MemCon to the NICE (NSC Intelligence Collaboration Enviroment) computer system, which is normally used for only the most highly classified files; discuss Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor’s House testimony; and talk about the reaction to the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

DTMFA

In this episode (recorded 9/28/19), we discuss possible outcomes of the House impeachment inquiry. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now; whether we have reached peak whataboutism; the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House; the role of public opinion; whether Mitch McConnell could prevent a trial from taking place in the Senate; and the chance that Donald Trump is convicted in the Senate.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunesStitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

DTMFA stands for “Donald Trump malfeasance allegations.” The opening clip is from the Honey Drippers’ 1973 single “Impeach the President”. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Implications

In this episode (recorded 9/21/19), we talk about the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities; the corrosive effects of cynicism; the intelligence whistleblower complaint; and who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunesStitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

The opening clip is from season 6 episode 3 of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Nothing Else Mattis

In this episode (recorded 12/23/18), we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019. We talk about the significance of Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ resignation and of his resignation letter; the US’ relationship with its allies; the normalization of authoritarian politics; the partial shutdown of the US government; whether President Trump could be impeached; Hungary’s “slave law”; and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Next Two Years

In this episode (recorded 11/16/18), we discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri; the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again; voter suppression in the election; what’s going to happen in US politics over the next two years; whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020; who the Democrats will nominate for President; whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries; and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Twice As Bright, Half As Long

In this episode (recorded 7/26/17), we discuss the probability that Donald Trump will leave office sometime in the first two years of his term. Scott thinks PredictIt’s markets—which currently give Trump a 17% chance of leaving office before the end of 2017 and a 35% chance of leaving office before the end of 2018—are pretty well priced, but Atief thinks PredictIt’s odds of Trump leaving are too high.

We end the podcast by considering the possibility that voter suppression will have a significant effect on the midterm elections in the US; whether there is likely to be compelling evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia; and the danger of a North Korean nuclear attack on Hawaii.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Special Counsel

In this episode (recorded 5/17/17), we discuss Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s appointment of former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel overseeing the investigation of Russian interference in last year’s US election. We try to forecast whether recent revelations will ultimately lead to President Trump’s impeachment or resignation. Would a Congress of Marcus Aureliuses impeach Trump? Is there any abuse of office that would convince Republicans to vote for impeachment? Is Robert Mueller America’s Batman?

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 19: Trump Administration Best Bets

In episode 19 (recorded 2/12/17), we discuss the odds President Trump will be impeached, the odds that Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump administration official will be the first to leave office (and decide that at 12-1 odds National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is our best bet to leave office first), what’s wrong with New York Knicks management, whether compromising Russian footage of Trump will appear on RedTube, whether Trump and Melania will split up, whether the Affordable Care Act will be repealed or amended in 2017, who the next justice to leave the Supreme Court will be, and whether the Trump administration will withdraw from the Iran deal.

You can also find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.