Third Time’s the Plague

In this episode (recorded 3/22/20), we discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We talk about the Good Judgment/Open Philanthropy dashboard of COVID-19 forecasts; the situations in Missouri, Romania, and Hawaii; travel restrictions and stay-at-home-orders; whether red states will be impacted to a greater degree than blue states; and which of us will be the first to contract the coronavirus.

The Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map is here. The Good Judgment dashboard with superforecaster forecasts for the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is here. Metaculus’ infectious disease prediction markets are here.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/15/19), we interview Anthony Aguirre. Dr, Aguirre is a theoretical cosmologist at UC Santa Cruz and also one of the founders of Metaculus, of the Future of Life Institute, and of the Foundational Questions Institute. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus; forecasting the far future and catastrophic events; forecasting the development of AI; calibrating forecasts; catastrophic risk and the origins of the Future of Life Institute; exotic risks, including biotechnology, space weather, and vacuum decay.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. You can listen to another Anthony Aguirre interview on the Rationally Speaking podcast here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.