In this episode (recorded 10/25/17), superforecaster and friend of the pod Welton Chang joins us to talk about the new NBA season, the LA Clippers’ chance of winning as many games as last year, the Ewing Theory, what the Golden State Warriors’ slow start means, what New York Knicks fans can realistically hope for, Russell Westbrook’s chances of repeating as MVP, which teams are most likely to be in the NBA finals, and CSU Sibiu’s chance of winning La Liga Națională.
You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.
UPDATED: German speakers can read Roman Hagelstein’s profile in Welt am Sonntag.
In part one of our interview with German economist and superforecaster Roman Hagelstein (recorded 4/14/17), we discuss how Roman’s German background affects his forecasting, how he gamed one of the Good Judgment Project’s forecasting markets, the value of “extremizing” forecasts, and why civil wars tend to last a long time.
In part two of our interview with Roman, we discuss American policy in Syria and what Germans think about German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Then we talk about the Brier Fund, a private investment fund run by superforecasters, and about the challenge of forecasting financial markets. After a digression on who will win Most Valuable Player in the NBA this year, we finish up by talking about the chance of a crisis related to North Korea in the near future.
You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes and Google Play. Links to our other superforecaster interviews are here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com. If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.