Illuminating the Final Days

In this episode (recorded 1/10/21), we talk about the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the US Capitol. We start by congratulating ourselves for predicting that Illuminating would probably be the 2021 Pantone color of the year, although we didn’t anticipate that it would be paired with Ultimate Gray. We go on to look back at our 2016 Trump administration forecasts; look forward at how the Biden administration will compare; speculate about the possibility of a serious crisis during the Biden administration; consider whether there will be violence before Joe Biden’s inauguration; and discuss the future of the Republican Party and Trumpism.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

This Podcast About the Election Is Disputed

In this episode (recorded 11/21/20), we talk about the US election and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. We discuss what happened in the US election; what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia; whether polls are any good; the paranoid style in American politics; whether Joe Biden can govern a divided country; who Donald Trump will pardon (this podcast was recorded before President Trump pardoned Michael Flynn); how American democracy performed in the election; and what the 2021 Pantone color of the year will be (Scott and Robert predict the 2021 color will be Illuminating or possibly Marigold, although Atief bets it won’t be either color).

UPDATE 12/9/20: The Pantone 2021 Color of the Year is Ultimate Gray and Illuminating together.

The Vox interview of David Shor is here. The most recent Pantone color trend reports are here. The Metaculus Pantone color of the year forecast question is here. Our podcast on the 2020 Pantone color of the year is here.

The intro music is a clip from Scandal’s “Goodbye to You”. You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Shades of Blue

It’s finally here! In this episode (recorded 11/23/19), we try to predict the Pantone Color of the Year for 2020. Will it be “classic blue” or “mosaic blue” or “flame orange” or something else? We’ll find out soon.

You can see last year’s color (“living coral”) along with previous colors of the year here. You can hear our podcast on the 2019 Color of the Year here, on the 2018 Color of the Year here, and on the 2017 Color of the Year here. You can read about “ecosexuality” here.

We’re now on Spotify! You can also find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

UPDATE: We pretty much nailed this. The Pantone 2020 Color of the Year is classic blue.

Implications

In this episode (recorded 9/21/19), we talk about the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities; the corrosive effects of cynicism; the intelligence whistleblower complaint; and who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.

If you would like to make a prediction for Pantone’s color of the year, include it when you rate us on  iTunes, Stitcher or leave it in the comments below. You can find Pantone’s New York Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2020 colors here. Read an article on the Pantone’s color of the year here. Pantone’s 2019 color of the year was living coral.

The opening clip is from season 6 episode 3 of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Overtaken by Events: Holiday Edition!

In this episode (recorded 12/10/18), we perform our annual ritual of guessing the Pantone Color of the Year (the 2019 Color of the Year is here and you can listen to our discussions of the 2017 and 2018 colors here and here). Then we make our predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year, which was chosen the day after we recorded (Time’s 2019 Person of the Year is here).

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

No More Roy Moore

We’re back after our holiday podcast-editing hiatus with an episode (recorded 12/13/17) on color, US electoral politics, and the Mueller investigation.

We start by talking about why we got the Pantone’s 2018 color of the year wrong and why we still think Pantone should have chosen Cherry Tomato. Next we talk about the significance of Doug Jones’ victory over Roy Moore in the Alabama special election. Then we discuss the impact of the #MeToo movement on US politics and why it is important to focus on processes as well as outcomes. We close by discussing the prospects for and possible reaction to the tax bill that Trump ended up signing over the holidays.

You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Definitely Cherry Tomato

As we begin this episode (recorded 12/1/17), you can hear sirens in the background as Hawaii conducts the first test of its new new nuclear attack warning system in the background. We go on to discuss—once Robert finishes ducking and covering—the prospects for the Republican tax bill.

Next we forecast Pantone’s 2018 Color of Year. Last year Scott correctly guessed it would be Greenery. This year we all agree that the color of the year would either be Cherry Tomato or Meadowlark. In fact, Pantone announced after we recorded that the color of the year will be Ultra Violet, which—apparently—”communicates originality, ingenuity, and visionary thinking that points us toward the future”.

We end the podcast by forecasting how well Star Wars: The Last Jedi will do on Rotten Tomatoes and at the box office. Then we guess the name of Prince William and Kate Middleton’s forthcoming baby (Alice is the favorite on Paddy Power at 8/1).

We inverted the ratio of girls to boys born at the end of the podcast and regret the error. You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 14: Seth Baum on Trump Presidency Risk

In our last podcast of 2016 (recorded on 12/22/16), we talk for a second time to Global Catastrophic Risk Institute Executive Director Seth Baum (our first interview with Dr. Baum is here). We discuss Dr. Baum’s recent column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on the risks associated with a Trump presidency. We discussed whether Trump believes in Nixon’s “Madman Theory”of foreign policy, how much damage Trump could do to the global climate change regime, and what ordinary citizens could do to mitigate the risk of catastrophe.

We also look back at our holiday-season predictions. The Pantone 2017 color of the year was “greenery”, which was the color that Scott thought was second most likely. Robert managed to come within $5 million of the opening weekend domestic box office of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. We finish up by talking about our holiday plans and also about vampires. Happy New Year and thanks for listening to NonProphets!

You can find NonProphets on iTunes here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

Episode 13: Holiday Forecasts!

In Episode 13 (recorded on 12/7/16), we try to predict the 2017 Pantone color of the year (go here to read about how Pantone selects its color of the year). Robert and Scott guess primrose yellow while Atief bets it will be island paradise. The day after we recorded Pantone announced the color of the year will be greenery, which Scott had as his alternate choice.

We then try to forecast Amazon’s 10 top holiday best-sellers and the opening weekend domestic box office of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. We close the podcast with a brief discussion of the chance that Democrats could push through Merrick Garland’s appointment to the Supreme Court in the brief recess before the new Senate is sworn in.

The intro music for this episode is a clip from Hilo Hattie, “Santa’s Hula”. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.