Zelensky MemCon

In this episode (recorded 11/1/19), we share inside information about how MemCons (memoranda of conversations) are produced in the Situation Room from a source who has been involved in their production. We describe how MemCons are produced; explain how unusual it is to move a MemCon to the NICE (NSC Intelligence Collaboration Enviroment) computer system, which is normally used for only the most highly classified files; discuss Lt. Col. Vindman and Ambassador Taylor’s House testimony; and talk about the reaction to the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

A Letter to Erdogan

In this episode (recorded 10/19/19), we talk about President Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria; what Tulsi Gabbard is up to; and what the US presidency might look like when Trump is gone.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

War Cry

In this episode (recorded 8/2/19), we talk about what we did over the summer; why we’ve been less enthusiastic about following politics lately; what we think about the Democratic primary debates so far; whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low; to what extent we’re responsible for the ethics and policies of the candidate we support; the weakening of the principle of stare decisis in American politics; and American values and the politics of resentment.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

David Epstein Interview

In this episode (recorded 7/23/19), we interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World and The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short; how to adapt to “wicked” learning environments; why “omnivorous generalists” are good at forecasting; how his research influenced how he plans to raise his own child; what we get wrong about Mozart and Tiger Woods; the advantages of having students explore topics broadly rather than teaching them narrow skills; the advantages of “skill-stacking”; and his experience interviewing Sir Roger Bannister.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews here. You can watch David discuss Range with Malcolm Gladwell here. The Calling Bullshit website is here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Somethingtopia

In this episode (recorded 5/12/19), we talk about the ethics of forecasting; why public forecasts may be less problematic than private forecasts; why painting houses is morally less problematic; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s warning that President Trump might refuse to leave office if he loses a close election; the “Schrödinger’s asshole” strategy; and Jared Diamond’s prediction that “the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050”.

The intro music is a clip from “Strange Overtones” by David Byrne & Brian Eno. You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Superforecaster’s Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

In this episode (recorded 3/1/19), we interview novelist and superforecaster Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series four spy novels: The Colonel’s MistakeThe LevelingSpy For Hireand Death of a Spy set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels; what will become of the Iran nuclear deal; how common conspiracies are in real life; his forthcoming work set during the siege of Aleppo; how he researches his books; the Middle East’s prospects; what other authors have influenced his style; and what his fans are like.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. You can find all of our interviews with superforecasters here. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Nothing Else Mattis

In this episode (recorded 12/23/18), we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019. We talk about the significance of Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ resignation and of his resignation letter; the US’ relationship with its allies; the normalization of authoritarian politics; the partial shutdown of the US government; whether President Trump could be impeached; Hungary’s “slave law”; and whether the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

Overtaken by Events: Holiday Edition!

In this episode (recorded 12/10/18), we perform our annual ritual of guessing the Pantone Color of the Year (the 2019 Color of the Year is here and you can listen to our discussions of the 2017 and 2018 colors here and here). Then we make our predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year, which was chosen the day after we recorded (Time’s 2019 Person of the Year is here).

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Next Two Years

In this episode (recorded 11/16/18), we discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri; the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again; voter suppression in the election; what’s going to happen in US politics over the next two years; whether President Trump will win a second term in 2020; who the Democrats will nominate for President; whether someone will challenge President Trump in the Republican primaries; and what will happen next with the Mueller investigation.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

The Midterms and the Day After

In this episode (recorded 11/1/18), we continue our discussion of the political climate in the US ahead of the midterm elections on Tuesday. We talk about the impact of the “migrant caravan” story and President Trump’s threat to end birthright citizenship; why most conspiracy theories are false; humiliation in forecasting and in politics; the Missouri Senate race; the fight over the US Supreme Court; the possibility of violence after the midterms; and Trump’s claim that he can effectively amend the 14th Amendment by executive order.

Listeners still have a couple more days to take advantage of political betting site PredictIt’s midterm promotional offer (check out our interview with PredictIt’s Will Jennings here). Sign up by Election Day (November 6) to get up $20 of your first deposit matched by using our link:

www.predictit.org/promo/NONPROPHETS20

GO VOTE, AMERICA!

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.