Twice As Bright, Half As Long

In this episode (recorded 7/26/17), we discuss the probability that Donald Trump will leave office sometime in the first two years of his term. Scott thinks PredictIt’s markets—which currently give Trump a 17% chance of leaving office before the end of 2017 and a 35% chance of leaving office before the end of 2018—are pretty well priced, but Atief thinks PredictIt’s odds of Trump leaving are too high.

We end the podcast by considering the possibility that voter suppression will have a significant effect on the midterm elections in the US; whether there is likely to be compelling evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia; and the danger of a North Korean nuclear attack on Hawaii.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunes, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

October 14, 2016 Podcast

In our latest episode, Robert and Scott argue that at this point Donald Trump has almost no chance of winning the election. Atief makes the case that recent news has not hurt Trump that much among his core supporters and that he could still win if Hillary Clinton’s supporters don’t get out to the polls. We play “too-high-too-low-or-about-right” with a bunch of PredictIt politics questions and also talk about driverless cars, longevity escape velocity, and the possibility of a cashless economy. We end the podcast about by thinking about what might happen after the US election.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends.

September 28, 2016 Podcast

In this episode, we update our US presidential election forecasts in the aftermath of the first debate. We disagree on how much the debate is likely to matter, but agree that Trump’s chances of winning the election are getting smaller. Then we talk about some interesting and surprising US politics forecasts on the PredictIt market and agree that it’s unlikely that Hillary Clinton will face a federal criminal charge in 2016. Finally, we look at how recent developments could affect the possibility of black swan instability in Saudi Arabia that we considered in an earlier podcast.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends!