In this episode, we update our US presidential election forecasts in the aftermath of the first debate. We disagree on how much the debate is likely to matter, but agree that Trump’s chances of winning the election are getting smaller. Then we talk about some interesting and surprising US politics forecasts on the PredictIt market and agree that it’s unlikely that Hillary Clinton will face a federal criminal charge in 2016. Finally, we look at how recent developments could affect the possibility of black swan instability in Saudi Arabia that we considered in an earlier podcast.
As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophets [at] nonprophetspod.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends!