PredictIt!

We start this episode (recorded 11/17/17) by catching up briefly on recent news. Then we discuss the black swan possibility of a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in light of recent events in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Lebanon. We finish by debating some PredictIt US politics questions.

You can find NonProphets on BlubrryiTunesStitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.

September 28, 2016 Podcast

In this episode, we update our US presidential election forecasts in the aftermath of the first debate. We disagree on how much the debate is likely to matter, but agree that Trump’s chances of winning the election are getting smaller. Then we talk about some interesting and surprising US politics forecasts on the PredictIt market and agree that it’s unlikely that Hillary Clinton will face a federal criminal charge in 2016. Finally, we look at how recent developments could affect the possibility of black swan instability in Saudi Arabia that we considered in an earlier podcast.

As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). And if you enjoy this podcast, please rate us on iTunes and recommend us to your friends!

The Second NonProphets Podcast Is Available

In the second episode of the NonProphets Podcast—which can be downloaded on iTunes and on Blubbry—we talk about how much we should revise our estimates of Donald Trump’s chance of winning, ask how wrong our Brexit referendum forecasts were, consider whether it is inappropriate to forecast some questions, and look at a possible black swan in the Middle East. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, use the contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com).